As the global race to vaccinate accelerates, we expect 2021 to be a year of economic catch-up. While the first quarter of the year will remain challenging with stringent Covid restrictions still in place in many countries, the global economy is now more resilient to the shock of the pandemic. Furthermore, the fiscal and monetary safety nets should be enough to avoid another severe contraction. Consumption, housing and global trade should drive the economic rebound, without inducing too much inflation.
This context is supportive for risk assets, and makes us cautiously optimistic as we begin 2021. We see a number of ways to invest in the business recovery as vaccination campaigns roll out. Strong diversification and prudence are key.
